Where rushed diesel index? Where is the ceiling? This was the task of the participants of stock exchange transactions, transfers fuel integrator "Algorithm". For its part, we propose to study the relationship of stock indices with a netback on the basis of archival materials and thus to obtain some sort of forecast.
The high fluctuation is the export parity price, as the chart is flattened on the Russian market methods of calculation of export duties: the higher the price of petroleum products in foreign markets, the higher the rates of duties performs a kind of protective function. For example, the current rate of export duty for diesel fuel is $22,3/t calculated at a price of Urals crude oil $45,66/bbl. But already on 15 August, the Ministry of Finance will calculate a new rate order to $25.3/ton, if oil prices will go up to 50/bbl, which is quite possible.
That is why external volatility in March-June within +/-10% was reflected on domestic prices fluctuations within +/- 3%. If our forecast is to rely on the established ratio of 1/3, the rise of parity prices in July-August from 32 000 to 38 000 R/tn (19%) could push the stock price to the level of 37 000 +/- 500 R/t.
On the other hand, we see that throughout the year, domestic prices generally exceed netback. There is a possibility that the stock indexes for diesel will reach 38 000 R/tn and higher. This will be the case if the barrel will continue to rise to $55.
And the news give the barrel a boost. According to the report of U.S. Department of energy, which forms in the exchange community opinion about the immediate behavior of oil futures, are:
- commercial oil stocks fell by up to 481.888 1.527 million barrels,
- gasoline stocks fell by up to 227.679 2.517 million barrels,
- distillate stocks fell 0.15 to 149.614 million barrels.
Gasoline traded bases differently, but on average with a weak plus. Constraining upward momentum was the release of repair Surgut condensate stabilization plant. Today they sold 780 tons of Ai92 at 40 038 R/t, which is 600 R/t below the previous day's transactions. Probably so monotonous, inexpressive dynamics will continue in the coming days.
But in the segment of diesel fuel will continue to rise. The causal relationship described above. The price has averaged about 110 R/t 36 380 R/t.
Stock prices of transactions with oil yesterday reached the level of netback, and today played down an average of 100 R/t to 10 700 R/t.
Intensive more expensive for the domestic good demand Sugi. Over the four trading day average transaction prices increased by 1 600 R/t, about 10%. This is a high pace.
Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"