A higher risk level reflects the deteriorating situation with the spread of the virus in the EU since June of 2017, when several new districts in Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic and Belgium reported the disease, which expands the range of possible routes of penetration of the plague in Britain. "Jumps" of ASF in the West, most likely, was caused by the people who transferred the infected meat products and weak biosecurity pig farms

With a probability of "over 10%" is the threat of contaminated meat entering the party fresh or frozen or raw pork products pork origin from Romania. In the period from July to September last year this country imported more than 700 tonnes of sausages, offal and other products, including from areas currently located in restricted areas of the ASF. It is unclear if they have these products antiviral treatment.

There is a "ten percent" probability of penetration of the ASF through the clothes and shoes that have not been disinfected. Every week a large number of pedestrians, mainly, hunters and agricultural workers return to the UK. Some British travel companies offer guided hunting trips in countries affected by the virus regions of Poland.

In the last decade in Eastern Europe was a significant increase in the number of vehicles passing through the ports of great Britain. Polish vehicles account for 20% of the total volume of transport from continental Europe. Romania this indicator takes the third place. The risk of transmitting ASF transport is considered to be "probable", especially for vehicles transporting pigs and did not pass anti-epidemic treatment.

The risk that people arriving in the UK with contaminated products from infected regions, is considered "likely, with moderate uncertainty." Most likely, these products can come from non-commercial farms. The Department also emphasizes the possibility of importing plague from waste catering.