Rosstat recorded a slowdown in inflation. In March, consumer prices rose by 0.3% (although the consensus forecast was 0.4%) after 0.4% in February and 1% in January 2019. Similar dynamics demonstrated and core inflation (excludes price fluctuations of energy commodities, commodities, circulation of which are regulated by the government, and the most volatile food items). Food in March 2019 rose 0.5% (excluding fruit and vegetable products — 0.3%), manufactured goods in March rose by 0.3% and services by 0.1%. In an April note "Pattern of inflation", the economy Ministry analysts conclude that "the slowdown in inflation continued in monthly terms, which indicates the exhaustion of the impact on prices of the VAT increase".

Annual inflation in March accelerated by 0.1 percentage point, to 5.3%, mainly due to the low base last year, which was primarily reflected in the acceleration of the dynamics of food prices — from 4.6% to 4.7%, while growth in food prices and services have not changed. While core annual inflation in March in the methodology of Rosstat remained at 4.4%, and in the methodology of the Ministry of economy (with the exception of food, regulated goods and of excisable goods), where it is called "monetary" declined to 3.2% in March from 3.7% in February (see chart).

The Ministry forecast that for April, consumer prices will rise as well, about 0.3%, and annual inflation in April will amount to 5.1–5.2 percent. "Thus, in March the annual inflation rate reached a peak, after which it the rates will start to decline at a stable rate of the ruble to the end of the year will fall to 4.3%",— concluded the Ministry of economy. These findings support analysts Capital Economics, said: "most Likely, the peak of inflation has passed. We expect that the key rate of the Central Bank will gradually decline over the remainder of the year before will be below the inflation target in 2020, when the effect of the increase in VAT will come to naught". Central Bank predicted that annual inflation will peak in March-April. In late March, the regulator has lowered the forecast of inflation for 2019 to 4.7 to 5.2% from 5.0–5.5% and expects that she will return to the target level of 4% in the first half of 2020.

Photo: Vasily Shaposhnikov / Kommersant