In the next three to five years in the pig starts sector consolidation, which resulted in the share of the top 3 players must be 50%. This forecast was made Director General of the National Union of pig producers (NSS) Yuri Kovalev organized "Agroinvestor" conference of Russian Meat & Feed Industry. Despite the fact that the share of the top 20 continues to grow and last year reached 65% of the volume of industrial production, to talk about the fact that the market began a serious concentration, it's still early, he said.

"The share of the top 3 today does not exceed 23%. We have not yet consolidation was still observed organic growth. We expect that in the next three to five years will do real consolidation," — said Kovalev. According to him, this will happen for two main reasons. The first — a more difficult financial situation of producers associated with a change in market conditions. The second issue is the age of the founders. "The time has passed 15 years from the moment the company started, and someone has their followers, the followers, and someone not. It will also play a role," — said Kovalev. He added that consolidation will be considered successful when the share of the top 3 will be close to 50%, "as is happening around the world and in different industries".

According to Rosstat, last year, pork production in the country increased by 5.5% to 4.8 million tonnes this year, according to the forecast of NSS, the indicator will add another 4-5% or 150-170 thousand tons. "we can Already sum up the results of the first quarter, the pace [of growth] continues. For January-February — an increase of 7.2%," — said Kovalev. Growth will continue in the coming years. The import, according to the expectations of the Union this year will increase by 80-100 thousand t up to 150-170 thousand tons of pork Exports will increase by 15-20% to 100 thousand tons.

As for prices, amid ongoing production growth and the expected increase in imports will reduce the average wholesale price of pork in 2019. According to the forecast Kovalev, at the end of the year the price of pork will decrease by 5-10% and are the lowest in the last five years — about 95 RUB/kg from the VAT "with the prospect of further declines". "The most difficult situation we expect for 2020, when will the final all capacity currently under construction complexes", — said Kovalev.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of agriculture, in 2019, pork production will increase 4% to 4.99 million tonnes As reported by the head of Department of food resources of the Department of animal husbandry and breeding Department Danil Makarov, pork exports will grow by 1.7 times up to 144 thousand tons. "we Expect pork exports by 2024 will reach 274 thousand tons," — said Makarov.