The fall was mainly the result of a ten percent reduction in production in China due to African swine fever (ASF). The outbreak has led to reduction of livestock, which inevitably led to a reduction in pork production.

The analyst of the British Council for the development of agriculture and horticulture (AHDB) felicity Rask said, "the Latest data contrast with the predictions of October, which continue to expect production growth in China by 1%. This highlights how the situation with ASF has escalated in recent months. However, the decline is still on the lower level of recent estimates made by other analysts."

A recent report by Rabobank has shown that production in China may fall by 25-30% year on year, forcing local producers to destroy approximately 150-200 million pigs.

Due to the fact that Chinese manufacturing is suffering, in order to meet the demand of the industry attention paid to other regions: it is projected that, with the exception of China, production will moderately increase at the expense of the United States and Brazil. It is expected that Chinese imports will increase by 41%, which will increase global pork exports by 8%.

"In particular, the EU expects to benefit from growing demand from China, while exports will increase by 11%. The strengthening of the export market may induce producers to expand their herds at the end of this year," says rusk.

It is expected that U.S. exports will also benefit. Export sales to China are already growing, despite current response rates. Although these rates remain a deterrent, pork, the United States may obtain an indirect benefit from changes in trade flows.

It is also expected a large demand from Japan. The reduction of tariffs on red meat under the new free trade agreements will stimulate the demand for pork, the EU and Canada. However, exports to Korea is likely to decline because of increased domestic production and high inventory levels.