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Meat exports for the year could grow by 50%
However, the development of external sales are still affected by the pandemic, the difficulty in logistics and the tightening of China to the Russian poultry meat
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At the end of this year, Russia may increase the export of meat by 50% to 470 thousand t. In particular, the supply of pork and offal can increase by 60% to 160 thousand tons, poultry meat — by 54% to 324 thousand tons, beef — by 60% to 9 million tonnes, writes "Kommersant", citing a study by the National rating Agency (NRA). The increase of pork exports is primarily due to the sales to Vietnam, the decline of production in Asia due to African swine fever (ASF). So, last year, China reduced its pork production by 21.3% to 42.5 mln t. the Forecast of growth of export of poultry and beef analysts associated with the opening of China to supply these products.

Such significant projected growth due to low base of last year, the Executive Director of the company "Rincon management" Konstantin Korneev. The export is always in the dynamics: so, for now, China is tightening requirements for suppliers of poultry meat. "If we were discussing the preconditions of forecast of exports of poultry meat in China, which was two months ago, and as of this morning, we would be quite differently evaluated the prospects," adds Korneev.

CEO of National meat Association Sergey Yushin calls the NRA a realistic assessment, however, in the countries-competitors of Russia in the markets of the Eastern States (the U.S., EU, Brazil) surplus meat, which can greatly affect prices. Also negatively on projections of exports of domestic meat may be affected by a strengthening of the ruble, he said. "On the other hand, the development of exports is caused by growth of meat production in Russia", — said the "Agroinvestor" Yushin.

When planning shipments of products to other countries is estimated economic feasibility: an export transaction is likely to be accomplished only in the case that its capacity is at least equal domestic stresses Korneev. However, at the current conjuncture of world market of meat, especially pork and poultry, to continually obtain the necessary level of profitability is difficult, he adds.

"Capacity development is, in the first place — poultry. The pork is also enormous export opportunities, but it is fraught with veterinary restrictions, and beef — rather, PR-Executive project, which suggests that in Russia, too, can raise good quality calves," commented "the Agroinvestor" Korneev. However, he believes that the quality of meat is comparable with the products of its main competitors, but in time our country can give in Brazil and USA in price and delivery time.

To realize the export potential may prevent trade restrictions caused by the pandemic COVID-19, the study says the NRA. Among the negative factors Yushin also notes the increased demands on poultry products in the Chinese market, pandemic, disturbances in supply chains, decline in demand in countries which formerly imported a large quantity of meat.

"Under certain circumstances, the volume of export of livestock products may even grow. More and more companies start to think about the future, learn from your colleagues and competitors, make more use of support mechanisms, both financial and informational. The constant work of the Ministry of agriculture and Rosselkhoznadzor in opening of new markets is a major key to future achievements," — said Yushin.

NRA analysts also expect that by the end of the year, pork production will grow by 7% to 4.21 million tonnes in carcass weight, and the fifth part of the increase will go for export. The production of poultry and beef will increase in the range of 1% to 5.4 million tons and 1.63 million tons, respectively. While domestic meat consumption will fall because of lower incomes, the Agency predicts. Poultry is the cheapest animal protein, and it would be logical, if its consumption has increased, pork production fell, as it is more expensive. "But you always have to assess the situation of consumption in specific regions. If people will change their preferences, then the bird in the structure of their consumption they will try to save as much as possible," he concludes.



Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"
Источники: Агро Инвестор
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