Last week, export prices for Russian wheat have started to decline on the background of descending dynamics of world platforms, and with the approaching timing of the appearance on the market of the new crop. According to the analytical center "Sovekon", last week Russian wheat protein 12.5% of lost $3, down from $202/ton (FOB, Novorossiysk). The Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) has recorded a fall in the price of $7 to $199 for delivery in August, according to Reuters.

According to the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans", a ton of wheat in the demand for delivery in July fell $8 to $195-198/T. It is related to forecasts of the Ministry of agriculture of the USA about record production and stocks of wheat and the results of a recent Egyptian tender. "Apparently, as expected, the damage in the South is lower than it sounded previously, commented "the Agroinvestor" the head of the center Igor Pavensky. — Everything will be clarified when there is data on the harvest that mass will start in late June-early July. And if these expectations are confirmed, that is, the probability of further decline in prices. Moreover, according to our estimates, in a part of southern Federal district Volgograd region will be the growth of the crop and the Rostov region — not less good last year."

Due to forecasts of a significant decline in harvest in the South and high prices, farmers were not very active in selling grain deliveries in July, Pavensky said. If the price of old crop wheat recently reached 15.5 thousand rubles/ton (CPT, Novorossiysk, excluding VAT), the price of demand for new crop declined to 12.8 thousand rubles per ton, and that the sales FOB with July delivery at $204-208/t "Now, after declining FOB prices, the ruble prices of demand in the ports can be adjusted down," adds Pavensky.

Since the beginning of the past season on June 19, Russia exported 35.7 million tons of grain, which is 15% less than the previous season, writes Reuters. Wheat exports totaled 30.4 million tons (12% less), barley — 2.8 million tonnes (40% less), corn — 46 million tonnes (minus 10%). Pavensky said that since April 1, when launched the quota, until 18 June 2020, Russia exported of 7.16 million tonnes of grain.

In the first month of the new season, the country may export about 3.5-4 million tons instead of the 4.76 million tons a year earlier. This is due to the shift in the timing of harvesting due to precipitation, and the South of the country, which typically gives the first new crop, while demonstrating a significant reduction in fees and low carryover stocks, previously told Pavensky. "Interfax" it is said that among the reasons for low level of Contracting new crop due to falling prices of demand from exporters amid expectations of a substantial reduction in harvest in the Krasnodar and Stavropol edges.

Meanwhile, the "SovEcon" predicts that, despite not the most favorable situation in the South of the country, the grain harvest there may be 34.5 million tonnes, down from 31.8 million tons in 2019, that is, at a level of 2017. ICARUS on June 22 increased the forecast of wheat harvest in Russia from 78 million tons to 79.5 million tonnes export Forecast for the crop in the season 2020/21 increased by 2 million tonnes to 37 million tonnes.