In season 2020/21 Russia and Ukraine under good weather conditions, can collect in the amount of 32 million tons of sunflower that may be a new record. However, the forecasts of gross yield are already affecting the formation of prices for sunflower oil and sunflower oil. Contracts for the supply of sunflower oil from the seeds of the old crop are largely met, demand will weaken, which will lead to the reduction in the cost of sunflower, analysts say the German Agency OilWorld.

A significant impact on the market would further the export policy of Russia regarding the sunflower. "We expect that Russian processors will do everything in their power to try to prevent a repeat of the experience on the mass export of sunflower in 2019/20 year," — emphasizes OilWorld.

The Institute for agricultural market studies (IKAR) forecasts a crop of sunflowers this year at 15 million tonnes, the Russian grain Union believes that the gross yield will be approximately at last year's level of just over 15 million tonnes In June, the analytical centre "Sovekon" has increased the forecast of sunflower crop this year from 13.9 million tons to 14.6 million tons According to the June forecast of the Foreign agricultural service of USDA (FAS USDA), the sunflower crop in Russia will amount to 15.5 million tonnes.

In good weather conditions in Russia can be a record harvest of sunflower and the traditional seasonal drop in prices on oil, says head of crop production division of industry analysis, "Center Agrobaltika" of the Ministry of agriculture Rudolf Bulavin. However, according to him, it is difficult to say exactly when this will happen. Contracts for the supply of oil from sunflower old crop concluded, but for the most part not yet performed. Oil still has to manufacture and ship for export. In this regard, it is expected that sunflower stocks by the end of August will be the lowest in the last five years, which will support prices in the domestic market, he commented "the Agroinvestor". Also, the domestic price will depend on the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar: in case of reduction of internal ruble prices will receive support. On the other hand, a significant influence on the dynamics of prices can have government measures to restrict exports of sunflower.

Vice-President of the Russian grain Union Alexander Korbut said that while predicting the harvest is tricky as the weather can still make their own adjustments. According to him, if the price of sunflower oil will be high, this will favor producers. Korbut also adds that Russian farmers learned how to store the seeds, and because of this, many of them will not rush to sell their crops. "I hope that sunflower prices in the new season will be high. Of course, not as high as at the end of the 2019/20 year, because this can not be", — he commented "the Agroinvestor".

Earlier it became knownthat Russia plans to raise export duty on sunflower seeds to 20%, but not less than 80 euros per tonne, from the current 6.5%, but not less than EUR 9.75 per ton. In the case of a decision is it to act from 1 February to 31 August 2021. But it is still not clear whether Russia will raise the duty.

Also from July 1 to the EAEU operates a special licensing regime for export of sunflower outside of the Union. He replaced the export ban, in force until 30 June, and will last until 31 August 2020. The regime provides for the submission to the customs authority of the state authorization document for importation, exportation and transit of goods. To issue documents will be authorized by the authority. "I have not seen the document that specifies who is authorized to issue such documents. I think it's just a game that, on the one hand allows not to violate the rules of the EAEC and on the other to keep the ban," — said Korbut. Previously, other industry analysts also said,"the Agroinvestor"that clear how to work with the new regime, not yet.

 

Gross harvest of sunflower in Ukraine can be 16-16. 2 million tons, estimate the analysts of "APK-inform". However, the portal Latifundist reports that crop losses of sunflower in Ukraine can be from 15% to 80% due to rains and high temperatures in many regions of the country.