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IGC increased the forecast of Russian wheat exports
The estimate of production was reduced by 1 million tons
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In season 2020/21 Russia can export 37,1 million tons of wheat, said in a July report, the International grains Council (IGC). Last month the export was forecast at 36.1 million tons, the Harvest of agriculture this year could reach 78 million tons (79 million tons in the previous report), overs — 9 million tons (10.8 million t), estimate analysts. At the end of the season Russia will be the first in the world in terms of wheat exports, says the IGC. In second place would be the European Union, which will gather 125.6 million tonnes of wheat (128.4 million tons), the export will be sent to 26.5 million tonnes (27.5 million tons).

The gross grain harvest in Russia this year, the IGC estimates at the level of 118,6 million tonnes (120.4 mln t in the previous review), foreign markets will be shipped to 46.4 million tonnes (45.4 million tonnes). Residues in the whole grain will amount to 12.7 million tons (14.5 million tonnes). Leader in the production of grain will be USA with 444,6 million tonnes (in June forecast the crop was 458,9 million tons), they will be the first in export volume of 89.4 million tons (90.4 million tons).

According to the July forecast of IGC, in the season 2020/21 grain production in the world will exceed of 2.22 billion tonnes (nearly 2.24 billion tons), including 762 million tons (768 MT) of wheat. It is projected that world grain stocks at the end of the season will reach 625 million tons (635 million tons), but given the expected rise in demand, the ratio of global stocks-to-use would be significantly lower compared to the previous year, the report said. This is mainly due to a reduction in global corn stocks, especially in China. While global ending stocks of wheat are expected at a record level of 288 million tons (the June report — 290 MT).

According to forecasts of the Russian Ministry of agriculture, the grain harvest in Russia this year will amount to 122,5 million tonnes, including 75 million tons of wheat. The USDA estimates the potential gross yield of agriculture in Russia at the level of 77 million tons, excluding Crimea. In the first half of July, the analytical centre "Sovekon" has lowered the forecast of wheat crop from 80.8 million tons to 79.7 million tons, of grain in General — with of 128.6 million tonnes to 126,5 million tons , the Institute for agricultural market July 13 has reduced the forecast of wheat production from 78 million tonnes to 76.5 million tons, given the condition of crops in the South, the Center and the Volga region. In General, the average yield has been adjusted from 128 million tonnes to 126 million tonnes At the end of June the Russian grain Union (rzs) has forecast a grain harvest at the level of 124 million tonnes, including 77-78 mln tonnes of wheat, which is higher than last year and will increase export potential of wheat to 36 million tonnes.

Scientific Director of the hydrometeorological center Roman Vilfand at the end of last week said that the agrometeorological situation in the first half of July was much more complex than in June, so it is possible that there will be some adjustments downward of the forecast of the gross grain harvest. However, the meteorologist continues to believe that the grain harvest in the country will be at the level of the average values of the last five years.

Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"
Источники: Агро Инвестор
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