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The dollar in the summer can rise by 5-6 rubles
Since the beginning of the year, the ruble fell against the dollar by 4.4%, to Euro – by 2.2%. But during this period, on the stock exchange the dollar rose to almost 61 RUB/$ at the end of January and fell below 56 rubles/$ in mid-February. Then in March again reached 59,6 rubles./$ and was down to around 57,22 RUB the Euro since the beginning of the year was varied in the range 59,8-65 RUB./Euro
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However, at the current level of the ruble for a long time to stay do not succeed, believe economists and analysts. In their opinion, by the middle of summer, the dollar could rise by 5-6 rubles.

And today, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the ruble is overvalued by 10-12%, which is beneficial for the purchase of office currency. "We <...> because we know that from the fundamental values of the rate [of the ruble] is off by 10-12%, now it makes sense to buy foreign currency to meet their current obligations," Siluanov was quoted by "Interfax".

Depreciation of the ruble, to 10-12%, referred to the Minister of Finance, interviewed by "Vedomosti" experts expect in the second quarter. Thus, according to the chief economist of "Renaissance capital" Oleg Cousin and analyst of ROSBANK Eugene Koshelev, the dollar will rise to 62-63 RUB/$ by mid-year. And the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai believes that in the period up to the end of the year the dollar can go up to 65 rubles/$. According to the chief economist of PF "Capital" Eugene Nadorshin, it is possible that by July the dollar will reach 70 RUB.

As the main reasons for the growth of the dollar experts call the expectation of increased demand for the American currency from foreign investors after payment of dividends on shares of Russian companies over the 2016 in addition, the currency will need the companies and the state to service the external debt. According to the Bank, the amount of payments on the external debt of non-financial organizations, including principal and interest, in the II curtale 2017 should reach $17.2 billion.

The budget, according to Siluanov, now there is a need for foreign currency to meet external obligations. The Minister reminded that the Ministry of Finance may by at least $1 billion, but not necessarily that he will take advantage.

According to Kosheleva, "the current ruble is not comfortable neither for the budget, which is historically dependent on oil and gas revenues, nor for the Central Bank".

If the currency is really expensive in the summer to 63-65 rubles./$, those who will buy it now for rubles, will be able to save 8-10%. That is why experts recommend that those planning overseas holidays, to buy foreign currency for this purpose now, not to pigeonhole.

"Now for this very good time," says Koshelev. And Nadorshin recommends that, while the course is not increased to pre-purchase tour, including flights, accommodation, transfers and so on.

"If the trip is planned in the summer, then to buy foreign currency for current expenses in the period of rest in one day is not worth it. It is reasonable to convert rubles gradually, as this reduces risks," - said Kuzin, clarifying that now you could buy at least half of the amount.
 



Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"
Источники: Зерно Он-Лайн
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