Judging by the January crude oil futures today surged up to 7%, up to $50,5/barrel. the market evaluates the outcome of the session positively. It seems to us that the agreement within OPEC to freeze the production carries a psychological effect, and stock market players in the oil market use it to impart more volatility to prices. Because high volatility is the key to successful stock market game. In reality, oil indices, and without dancing around the freezing draft came in is acceptable to the manufacturers range of $40-$50/bbl.

In this corridor, I believe, and will walk the whole barrel next year, although we should recognize the potential for growth will continue if the market will feel a real decline of imbalance, but it is not large, up to a maximum of $60/bbl. It is on this level, shale oil becomes commercially attractive.

The SPIMEX

Gasoline second day expensive. Ai92 and ai95 rose by an average of 200 R/t. The growth showed almost all oil refineries. But the volume of transactions declined by about a third, compared to yesterday's turnover.

Bidders partially fulfilled pending transactions. Maybe tomorrow decreasing demand will stop the growth of indices. Published on the website of the exchange plans-jobs oil companies oil products sales in December, suggesting an increase in the production of motor gasoline by 7%, 3.16 million tons.

Significantly, almost half, will add production of gasoline at Ryazan, Volgograd refinery, KINEF. Samara group of refinery and Omsk refinery will reach its design capacity. Only the Ufa group of refineries, drastically reduces the production of 440-500 thousand tons of gasoline per month to 325, in December. As for the Central refinery, Moscow, Ryazan, Yaroslavl, the total volume of proposals of gasoline could rise in December by almost a quarter, from 58 to 72 thousand tons.

With diesel in November, will not be in December. Regulated sales of diesel will increase by 9%, from 260 to 284 thousand tons.

Reduced production of kerosene. Kerosene will go into winter diesel. Its share in total output will reach 52%, off-season fuel – 38%, the remaining 10% of summer grade diesel.