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Tuesday, 26 March 2013

Wheat to cost $500/ton in world market by 2030 – Ministry of Economic Development

The RF Ministry of Economic Development gives own forecast of grain market situation

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EU wheat Russia Ukraine USA grain World xUSSR Australia biofuels Ministries, RF Agri-Produce Technologies Countries Organizations feeds

Relative balance between supply and demand is predicted in grain market till 2030 due to production and export increase in such regions as Russia, Ukraine, Australia and Argentina.
After 2020 population growth factor will start to dominate in countries of Africa and Middle East where the share of wheat in food balance is traditionally high. The result is high probability of steady deficit in grain market wheat segment within this period.
The potential problem wheat world market deficiency will be aggravated by slower volume growth of world grain trade: from 123,8 million ton in 2010 to 180,4 million ton in 2030; or average 1,9% rate, that is below growth rates of total world trade.
The main world wheat exporters within the expected period are USA, the European Union, Canada, Australia and Russia, having more than 90% of world export share.
Wheat prices rise within the expected period will significantly advance an index of basic inflation under favorable conditions of world economy and will make average 4% per year, having reached $500/ton of wheat level by 2030

Источники: ПродMag