On the global food market increasingly shaken "price swings", and the Ministry of agriculture of the Russian Federation intends to continue the practice of quotas of grain export. Nevertheless, the prices of agricultural products even now, in the midst of the harvest, close to the maximum values (value of sunflower last week I broke the historical record). So, in this season farmers, apparently, will be able to earn good money.
As stated in the July forecast of the analytical center of "Rusagrotrans", in the SFD and skfo will collect 12 percent less wheat than last year - 28 vs 31.8 million tons.
- The decline in production in the Krasnodar and Stavropol edges, and also to a lesser extent in the Rostov region will be partially offset by growth in gross collection in the Volgograd region, - says head of the analytical center of the company Igor Pavensky. - The yield in the Kuban and Stavropol substantially below minus 30 percent, but we expect that the gap from last year will be reduced in the next couple of weeks at the expense of more fruitful fields and will be about 20 percent.
In those regions where in may spilled rains, the harvest will be good. In the Rostov region, for example, severely affected Eastern areas. The climate is almost semi-desert, and often the harvest is wasted due to lack of moisture. But in the Central districts and the South region will collect less, than last year, - said the farmer Roman Aleynikov. - To be honest, a small grain yield of the financial condition of the farmer, maybe even better. In this case prices higher and the yield per hectare. In addition, a large crop you want to remove, bring, dry, store and so on. If the purchase price is low, it is quite sad. And, of course, we are strongly influenced by global economic processes. In the US this year have decided to sow more corn, then the demand for wheat in the world will be higher. It's good for us.
According to the forecast of the Minister of agriculture Dmitry Patrushev, the whole country will be produced of the order of 122.5 million tons of grain (including up to 75 million tonnes of wheat, roughly the same as last year). According to him, this will fully meet domestic demand and increase exports. Nevertheless, the authorities intend to continue the practice of quotas. However, they will take into account the negative experience with incomplete customs declarations, when the quota was "ahead" of the selected market participants and the part of exporters for some time could not ship grain on previously concluded contracts. The model will improve, said the Minister.
To introduce export duties on grain, the agriculture Ministry does not intend to, also said the head of the Agency: farmers should be given the opportunity to make money. Although the interviewed farmers of the Kuban and Rostov region believe that quotas also negatively affect their income.
- Judge for yourself. If exports are high, the quota will be selected, and unsold grain will remain in our farms. The purchase price in this case will fall, we will not be able to sell on those conditions, which will be our competitors in the global market. I honestly do not understand why limit the export of grain, if we at all desire will not be able to consume in a year in the country even 60 million tons (including production of feeds, the needs of millers and so on). If we collect 120 million tons, it can sell half abroad, - says one of the farmers interviewed on condition of anonymity.
A dry summer can make adjustments in the harvest of oilseeds. However, analysts do not hurry to significantly revise forecasts lower yields will be partially offset by expansion of acreage. As a result, according to forecasts oil and fat Union of Russia, this year will be collected about 13 million tons of sunflower, about five million tons of soybeans and 2.3 million tons of rapeseed.
Producers of sunflower is also concerned about the expected restrictions of exports. And they fear that will not be able to sell the products at the best price in the country. However, many experts believe that the protective measures in the period of instability of the world economy - a necessary step to ensure food security. Federal authorities are also thinking about how to keep the price balance on the market because if farmers begin uncontrolled export of raw materials, the domestic refineries are faced with the deficit that will eventually hit the prices for sunflower oil.
- Moreover, to export processed products, in this case oil and meal, is more advantageous for the country than to export raw materials. According to our estimates, this season the profitability of sunflower production will be from 60 to 80 percent. 10 times higher than that of processors, - says the Executive Director of GK "EFKO" Sergei Ivanov. And the state is obliged to maintain a sectoral balance. In 2008, I did not believe that Russia will ever be able to produce 10 million tons of oil. And now I have no doubt that in five to eight years will cross the mark of 40 million, leaving far behind our main competitor on the black sea market Ukraine. And still reach self-sufficiency in soybeans and begin to export soybean meal. But this is possible only under the condition that the internal capacity will be quite busy as its domestic raw materials.
Mikhail Maltsev, Executive Director, oil and fat Union of Russia:
- No culture gives such consistently high margins as sunflower and soybeans. The price of sunflower seeds today in the domestic market up to 30 thousand rubles per ton. For comparison, wheat is sold in 12 - 12,5 thousand rubles per ton, for shipment to southern ports, corn is still cheaper, but the sugar market is generally experiencing hard times in terms of overproduction. That is, the manufacturer of the sunflower is guaranteed to receive a high income even without export shipments.
Translated by service "Yandex.Translation"
